ILMN stuck within tight trading range
Illumina Inc. (ILMN) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 6th day in a row, ILMN ended the week 5.2% higher at 309.84 after edging higher $0.64 (0.21%) today, underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (0.88%). Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ILMN as at Mar 15, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $3.77 (1.22%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $6.80. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for ILMN. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 306.25 and 310.89 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Hanging Man and the Northern Doji which are both known as bearish patterns and one neutral pattern, the Doji. The last time a Doji showed up on February 14th, ILMN gained 2.51% on the following trading day.
The market found buyers again today around 306.73 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 306.25 in the previous session and at 306.38 two days ago.
The share shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 310.89 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 306.25 where further sell stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 322.32, upside momentum could accelerate should the stock be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "6 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Illumina. Out of 18 times, ILMN closed lower 66.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 77.78% with an average market move of 0.47%.