IFL.AX snaps to lowest close since September 16, 2009
IOOF Holdings Limited (IFL.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
IFL.AX finished the week -33.33% lower at 4.60 after tanking $2.57 (-35.84%) today on high volume, significantly underperforming the ASX 200 (0.42%). This is the biggest single-day loss ever recorded for the share. Today's close at 4.60 marks the lowest recorded closing price since September 16, 2009. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (IFL.AX as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $0.83 (15.81%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.24. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for IFL.AX.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
IOOF Holdings closed back below the 20-day moving average at 6.80 for the first time since November 30th.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since October 31st, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices could head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 6.80 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices. The last time prices broke out below the lower Bollinger Band on October 25th, IFL.AX lost -5.17% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the 13 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Down Move" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for IOOF Holdings. Out of 275 times, IFL.AX closed higher 59.27% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.55% with an average market move of 1.04%.
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