IEL.AX closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
Ardent Leisure Group Ordinary/Units FP Stapled Sec (IEL.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, IEL.AX finished the week -5.71% lower at 9.58 after losing $0.03 (-0.31%) today, underperforming the market (ASX 200, 0.2%). Today's close at 9.58 marks the lowest recorded closing price since June 8th. Trading up to $0.66 lower after the open, the stock managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price.
Daily Candlestick Chart (IEL.AX as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range was $1.28 (14.02%), that's far above last trading month's daily average range of $0.29. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the markets average with the monthly volatility being way above average.
Prices are trading close to the key resistance level at 9.83. After having been unable to move above 9.82 in the prior session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 9.75. After trading as low as 8.47 during the day, the market found support at the 200-day moving average at 8.63. The last time this happened on June 1, 2017, IEL.AX lost -1.12% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 10.07.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the seven market conditions that our engine recognized today, the statistics for the Price Action based condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stands out. Although it is usually interpreted being bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish so far in the past for Ardent Leisure. Out of 82 times during the last ten years, IEL.AX closed higher 56.10% of the time on the next trading day. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.66% with an average market move of 2.07%.