ICE fails to close above 50-day moving average
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 13, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
ICE finished Monday at 91.83 losing $0.72 (-0.78%), but still slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.94%). Trading $1.59 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ICE as at Jul 13, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been $2.60 (2.8%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.93. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for ICE.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern. The last time a Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern showed up on June 23rd, ICE actually lost -2.98% on the following trading day.
After spiking up to 94.32 during the day, Intercontinental found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 93.69. The share found buyers again today around 91.72 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 91.55 in the prior session and at 91.50 two days ago.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 91.50 where further sell stops might get triggered. As prices are trading close to July's high at 94.60, upside momentum could speed up should the market mark new highs for the month. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test June's nearby low at 90.01.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Intercontinental. Out of 64 times, ICE closed higher 59.38% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 65.63% with an average market move of 1.14%.