ICE still stuck within tight trading range
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
ICE finished the month -5.81% lower at 91.60 after gaining $1.20 (1.33%) today on high volume, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Monday's high at 91.29, the stock confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.57 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ICE as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.55 (1.72%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.28. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for ICE. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 90.01 and 93.26 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Despite a weak opening the market managed to close above the previous day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
After spiking up to 91.86 during the day, Intercontinental found resistance at the 200-day moving average at 91.74. The share was bought again around 90.31 after having seen lows at 90.10, 90.33 and 90.01 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level. The last time this happened on June 23rd, ICE actually lost -2.98% on the following trading day.
While ICE is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 90.10 where further sell stops might get activated. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test May's close-by low at 87.51.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Intercontinental. Out of 712 times, ICE closed higher 53.51% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.99% with an average market move of 0.81%.