HUM still stuck within tight trading range
Humana Inc. (HUM) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 20, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
HUM finished the week 0.94% higher at 277.28 after losing $1.13 (-0.41%) today, but still slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.49%). Trading $2.79 higher after the open, Humana was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Wednesday, HUM actually gained 1.93% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HUM as at Sep 20, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $5.63 (2.01%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $7.28. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for HUM. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 271.66 and 282.39 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
The stock shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 271.66 where further sell stops could get activated. As prices are trading close to September's high at 283.99, upside momentum might speed up should the share mark new highs for the month.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Humana. Out of 417 times, HUM closed higher 58.99% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.83% with an average market move of 1.29%.