HUM finds support at 20-day moving average
Humana Inc. (HUM) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 08, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
HUM ended the week -2.42% lower at 298.89 after losing $5.08 (-1.67%) today on low volume, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.07%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 299.98, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $2.32 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HUM as at Feb 08, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $6.18 (2.04%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $6.14. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for HUM.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 297.66 during the day, the share found support at the 20-day moving average at 298.57. The last time this happened on Wednesday, HUM gained 0.73% on the following trading day. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 303.99 (R1).
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 305.43 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 291.61 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Humana. Out of 449 times, HUM closed higher 56.35% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 65.70% with an average market move of 1.73%.