HUM closes lower for the 3rd day in a row
Humana Inc. (HUM) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, HUM finished the week -3.86% lower at 318.35 after losing $1.56 (-0.49%) today on high volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Today's close at 318.35 marks the lowest recorded closing price since August 1st. Closing below Thursday's low at 318.98, the share confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $3.42 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HUM as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $9.96 (3.08%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $5.08. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for HUM.
After trading as low as 315.56 during the day, Humana Inc. found support at the 100-day moving average at 318.21. The last time this happened on May 9th, HUM gained 3.17% on the following trading day. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 320.49 (R1).
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day though could signal a potential change in momentum that might lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 333.39.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Trading close to August's low at 314.49 we could see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close below the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Humana Inc.. Out of 109 times, HUM closed higher 55.05% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 67.89% with an average market move of 2.58%.