HOME closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
At Home Group Inc. (HOME) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, HOME finished Thursday at 2.18 edging lower $0.01 (-0.46%), significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). Trading $0.38 higher after the open, the share was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HOME as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.51 (22.67%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.65. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for HOME.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern. The last time a Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern showed up on March 17th, HOME actually lost -34.80% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 2.00 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for At Home. Out of 115 times, HOME closed higher 57.39% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.17% with an average market move of -1.41%.