HOMB closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
Home BancShares Inc. (HOMB) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, HOMB finished the month 6.18% higher at 16.33 after losing $0.18 (-1.09%) today, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HOMB as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.68 (4.15%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.67. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for HOMB.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on July 20th, HOMB actually gained 5.87% on the following trading day.
After trading as low as 15.83 during the day, Home BancShares found support at the 20-day moving average at 15.84.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 16.99 where further buy stops could get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Home BancShares. Out of 303 times, HOMB closed higher 52.48% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.78% with an average market move of 0.92%.