HOG finds support at 50-day moving average
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, HOG finished the month 9.51% higher at 26.03 after losing $0.59 (-2.22%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Closing below Thursday's low at 26.49, the stock confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.86 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HOG as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.93 (3.51%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.15. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for HOG.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 25.63 during the day, the market found support at the 50-day moving average at 25.64. The last time this happened on December 13, 2019, HOG actually lost -1.18% on the following trading day. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 26.74 (R1).
Although Harley-Davidson is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 50" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Harley-Davidson. Out of 25 times, HOG closed lower 60.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.00% with an average market move of -0.09%.