HOG still stuck within tight trading range
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
HOG ended the month 11.39% higher at 23.77 after edging lower $0.07 (-0.29%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). Trading up to $0.18 lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HOG as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.50 (2.12%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.37. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for HOG. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 22.61 and 24.59 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top. The last time a Bullish Spinning Top showed up on June 12th, HOG actually lost -0.24% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 22.85 (S1). After having been unable to move above 24.02 in the previous session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 23.95.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 22.61 where further sell stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to June's low at 21.41, downside momentum might accelerate should Harley-Davidson mark new lows for the month.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Harley-Davidson. Out of 545 times, HOG closed higher 53.39% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.74% with an average market move of 0.23%.