HOG closes higher for the 3rd day in a row
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, HOG ended the week 24.01% higher at 24.38 after gaining $0.80 (3.39%) today on high volume, notably outperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Today's close at 24.38 marks the highest recorded closing price since March 10th. Trading up to $0.91 lower after the open, the share managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on May 4th, HOG gained 1.08% on the following trading day. Closing above Thursday's high at 24.06, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $1.19 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HOG as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.18 (9.09%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.55. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for HOG.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish High-Wave Candle and the Bullish Spinning Top which are both known as bullish patterns.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 25.30 (R1).
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Spinning Top" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Harley-Davidson. Out of 210 times, HOG closed lower 50.48% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.38% with an average market move of 0.01%.