HOG closes higher for the 3rd day in a row
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, HOG finished Thursday at 20.75 edging higher $0.19 (0.92%) on high volume, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HOG as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $2.94 (14.27%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.50. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for HOG.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 19.23 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 22.85 (R1).
Although the market is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the two market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Spinning Top" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Harley-Davidson. Out of 208 times, HOG closed lower 51.44% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.40% with an average market move of -0.09%.