HOG finds buyers again around 34.01
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, HOG finished the week 1.45% higher at 34.36 after losing $0.20 (-0.58%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HOG as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.61 (1.76%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.81. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for HOG.
In spite of a strong opening Harley-Davidson closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 33.99 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 33.99 in the previous session, the share found buyers again around the same price level today at 34.01. The last time this happened on January 31st, HOG gained 2.10% on the following trading day.
While the market is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 34.98 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 33.99 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Harley-Davidson. Out of 315 times, HOG closed higher 54.29% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.65% with an average market move of 0.58%.