HOG ends the day on a bearish note closing near the low of the day
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 22, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, HOG finished Monday at 39.72 tanking $1.17 (-2.86%) on high volume, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.1%) ahead of Tuesday's earnings report. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HOG as at Apr 22, 2019):
HOG is set to report earnings before tomorrow's market open. For the upcoming report, analysts expect the company to have earned $0.67 per share. The company's last earnings report was released on Oct. 23, 2018, when Harley-Davidson Inc. reported earnings of $0.68 per share surpassing market expectations by 41.7%.
Monday's trading range has been $1.13 (2.8%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.93. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for HOG.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 39.56 during the day, Harley-Davidson found support at the 200-day moving average at 39.67. The last time this happened on September 21, 2018, HOG actually lost -1.50% on the following trading day.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Stock Earning Report based market condition "Trading Day before Earnings Report" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Harley-Davidson. Out of 25 times, HOG closed higher 52.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.00% with an average market move of 1.09%.