HOG unable to break through key resistance level
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 09, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, HOG ended the week 2.34% higher at 40.73 after edging lower $0.13 (-0.32%) today, but still outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.92%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HOG as at Nov 09, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $0.54 (1.33%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.10. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for HOG.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 41.05 (R1), the stock closed below it after spiking up to 41.05 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 40.48 in the prior session, the share found buyers again around the same price level today at 40.51. The last time this happened on October 15th, HOG gained 1.25% on the following trading day.
Though Harley-Davidson is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 41.40 where further buy stops could get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Harley-Davidson. Out of 318 times, HOG closed higher 53.77% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.35% with an average market move of 1.50%.