HFC rises to highest close since March 6th
HollyFrontier Corporation (HFC) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 27, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, HFC finished the week 8.84% higher at 24.25 after edging higher $0.30 (1.25%) today, notably outperforming the S&P 500 (-3.37%). Today's close at 24.25 marks the highest recorded closing price since March 6th. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HFC as at Mar 27, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $3.07 (13.37%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.90. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for HFC.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 24.66 (R1), HollyFrontier closed below it after spiking up to 25.09 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 22.18 in the previous session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 22.02. The last time this happened on Tuesday, HFC gained 11.65% on the following trading day.
Although the share is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 25.62 where further buy stops could get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "4 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for HollyFrontier. Out of 81 times, HFC closed higher 55.56% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.73% with an average market move of 1.62%.