HFC fails to close above 20-day moving average
HollyFrontier Corporation (HFC) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, HFC ended Thursday at 23.95 gaining $2.39 (11.09%), strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HFC as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $3.44 (15.05%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.87. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for HFC.
After spiking up to 25.62 during the day, the share found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 24.85. The last time this happened on December 16, 2019, HFC lost -1.30% on the following trading day.
While HollyFrontier is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 20" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for HollyFrontier. Out of 57 times, HFC closed lower 59.65% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.39% with an average market move of -0.54%.