GOOS breaks back above 100-day moving average
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subordinate (GOOS) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, GOOS ended the month 18.7% higher at 23.17 after gaining $0.30 (1.31%) today, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). Trading up to $0.31 lower after the open, Goose managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing above Monday's high at 22.94, the share confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $0.37 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GOOS as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.83 (3.64%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.26. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for GOOS.
The stock managed to close back above the 100-day moving average at 22.93 for the first time since June 23rd. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on June 16th, GOOS actually lost -0.13% on the following trading day. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 23.59 (R1).
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 22.04 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 100" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Canada Goose. Out of 16 times, GOOS closed lower 56.25% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.25% with an average market move of -2.53%.