GOOS still stuck within tight trading range
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subordinate (GOOS) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
GOOS finished the week 7.18% higher at 20.60 after losing $0.42 (-2.0%) today on low volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GOOS as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.86 (4.12%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.25. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for GOOS. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 19.86 and 21.30 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving higher in the previous session, Canada Goose closed lower but above the prior day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on December 12, 2019, GOOS lost -3.24% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
The market ran into sellers again today around 21.16 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 21.30 in the previous session and at 21.19 two days ago.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 21.30 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 20.02 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior two Highs" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Canada Goose. Out of 29 times, GOOS closed higher 65.52% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.07% with an average market move of 1.27%.