GNW fails to close above 200-day moving average
Genworth Financial Inc (GNW) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
GNW ended the month -14.87% lower at 3.32 after tanking $0.73 (-18.02%) today on high volume, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (-1.6%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over four years. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day loss on March 20th, GNW lost -8.02% on the following trading day. Closing below Monday's low at 3.80, the stock confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.82 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GNW as at Mar 31, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.18 (29.72%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.47. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for GNW.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 2.87 (S1). After spiking up to 4.16 during the day, the market found resistance at the 200-day moving average at 4.14. The share ran into sellers again today around 4.16 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 4.11 in the previous session and at 4.06 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Trading close to 2018's low at 2.66 we could see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get activated.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Very Strong Down Move" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Genworth Financial. Out of 114 times, GNW closed higher 55.26% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.26% with an average market move of 0.90%.