GLEN.L closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Glencore (GLEN.L) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 6th day in a row, GLEN.L ended the week 4.03% higher at 295.65 after edging higher £0.50 (0.17%) today, outperforming the FTSE 100 (-0.36%). Today's close at 295.65 marks the highest recorded closing price since December 4, 2018. Trading £3.80 higher after the open, Glencore was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GLEN.L as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been £8.15 (2.75%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of £8.44. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for GLEN.L. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 287.85 and 299.90 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Bearish High-Wave Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on December 10, 2018, GLEN.L actually gained 3.35% on the following trading day.
After trading down to 291.75 earlier during the day, the stock bounced off the key technical support level at 294.95 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels importance as support going forward.
Although the share is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 287.85 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish High-Wave Candle" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Glencore. Out of 34 times, GLEN.L closed higher 58.82% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after three trading days, showing a win rate of 52.94% with an average market move of 0.44%.