FRC breaks below Thursday's low
FIRST REPUBLIC BANK (FRC) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, FRC ended the week 1.45% higher at 97.30 after losing $1.25 (-1.27%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing below Thursday's low at 97.93, FIRST REPUBLIC confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $1.54 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FRC as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $3.01 (3.03%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.93. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for FRC.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 97.49 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. After having been unable to move above 99.36 in the prior session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 99.40. The last time this happened on May 12th, FRC lost -3.27% on the following trading day.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for FIRST REPUBLIC. Out of 475 times, FRC closed higher 52.63% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.68% with an average market move of 1.12%.