FOSL dominated by bulls lifting the market higher throughout the day
Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, FOSL ended Wednesday at 8.46 surging $0.96 (12.8%) on high volume, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). This is the biggest single-day gain in over three months. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day gain on August 13th, FOSL gained 6.04% on the following trading day. Today's close at 8.46 marks the highest recorded closing price since November 8, 2019. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Tuesday's high at 7.70, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $1.11 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FOSL as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $1.24 (16.38%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.51. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for FOSL.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Crossing above the upper Bollinger Band for the first time since August 17th, prices have shown unusually strong upward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential buying climax after which prices could head back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 6.50 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even higher prices.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Very Strong Up Move" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Fossil Group. Out of 112 times, FOSL closed lower 58.04% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.93% with an average market move of -2.30%.