FOSL slips to lowest close since June 1st
Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, FOSL finished the month -28.82% lower at 3.31 after losing $0.12 (-3.5%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Today's close at 3.31 marks the lowest recorded closing price since June 1st. Closing below Thursday's low at 3.43, the share confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.21 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FOSL as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.32 (9.12%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.30. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for FOSL.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day though might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 3.93.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
With prices trading close to this year's low at 2.69, downside momentum might speed up should the market break out to new lows for the year. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test June's nearby low at 2.97.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Fossil Group. Out of 542 times, FOSL closed lower 51.66% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 49.63% with an average market move of 0.42%.