FOSL breaks below key technical support level
Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
FOSL ended Thursday at 3.83 losing $0.12 (-3.04%), notably underperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). Trading $0.17 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on March 16th, FOSL lost -11.27% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FOSL as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.45 (11.31%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.63. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for FOSL.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 3.86 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. The share ran into sellers again today around 4.15 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 4.14 in the previous session and at 4.10 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 4.40 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 3.24 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Fossil Group. Out of 223 times, FOSL closed lower 56.50% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.91% with an average market move of -1.10%.