FOSL breaks back below 20-day moving average
Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) Technical Analysis Report for May 17, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, FOSL finished the week -11.28% lower at 12.82 after losing $0.53 (-3.97%) today, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.58%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FOSL as at May 17, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.55 (4.15%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.66. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for FOSL.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The stock closed back below the 20-day moving average at 13.33 for the first time since May 8th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on May 7th, FOSL actually gained 3.39% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "3 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Fossil Group. Out of 151 times, FOSL closed higher 51.66% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.93% with an average market move of 1.45%.