FOSL pushes through key technical resistance level
Fossil, Inc. (FOSL) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
FOSL ended the week -3.59% lower at 20.67 after gaining $0.93 (4.71%) today, notably outperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FOSL as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $1.21 (6.0%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.37. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for FOSL.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Morning Doji Star. The last time a Morning Doji Star showed up on June 29, 2012, FOSL actually lost -2.17% on the following trading day.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 20.50 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 19.25 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Morning Doji Star" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Fossil, Inc.. Out of 1 times, FOSL closed lower 100.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 100.00% with an average market move of -13.34%.