FNV breaks below 50-day moving average for the first time since May 24th
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, FNV ended the week -6.79% lower at 89.98 after losing $1.89 (-2.06%) today on high volume, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.07%). Today's close at 89.98 marks the lowest recorded closing price since August 2nd. Trading $1.29 higher after the open, Franco-Nevada was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FNV as at Sep 13, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $3.52 (3.84%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.36. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for FNV.
The share closed below the 50-day moving average at 91.73 for the first time since May 24th.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since April 23rd, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices could head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 95.55 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices. The last time prices broke out below the lower Bollinger Band on April 16th, FNV lost -1.94% on the following trading day.
Though the stock is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Franco-Nevada. Out of 112 times, FNV closed higher 61.61% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.68% with an average market move of 0.54%.