FLT.AX closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
Flight Centre Travel (FLT.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
FLT.AX finished Wednesday at 42.68 gaining $0.37 (0.87%), significantly outperforming the ASX 200 (-0.25%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FLT.AX as at Feb 13, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.85 (2.01%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.06. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for FLT.AX.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving lower in the prior session, the stock managed to close higher but below the previous day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 42.75 (R1), Flight Centre closed below it after spiking up to 43.09 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on February 8th, FLT.AX lost -1.63% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 42.02 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 41.19, downside momentum might speed up should the market break out to new lows for the year. As prices are trading close to February's low at 41.50, downside momentum could accelerate should the share mark new lows for the month.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Harami Candle" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Flight Centre. Out of 45 times, FLT.AX closed lower 53.33% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 60.00% with an average market move of -0.18%.