FISV breaks below 200-day moving average for the first time since November 15, 2016
Fiserv Inc. (FISV) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, FISV ended the week -5.55% lower at 74.74 after losing $1.33 (-1.75%) today, but still notably outperforming the Nasdaq 100 (-3.3%) following today's NFP report. Today's close at 74.74 marks the lowest recorded closing price since July 30th. Trading $1.01 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on November 29th, FISV actually gained 0.88% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FISV as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $2.25 (2.98%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.74. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for FISV.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 74.04 (S1). Fiserv closed below the 200-day moving average at 75.83 for the first time since November 15, 2016. After having been unable to move lower than 74.04 in the previous session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 74.32.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since November 1st, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices could head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 78.07 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 74.04 where further sell stops could get activated. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test November's nearby low at 73.51.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed below the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Fiserv. Out of 57 times, FISV closed higher 70.18% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 77.19% with an average market move of 3.13%.