FFIV fails to close above 200-day moving average
F5 Networks Inc. (FFIV) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
FFIV ended the week -3.87% lower at 165.32 after tanking $5.60 (-3.28%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (-2.33%) following today's NFP report. This is the biggest single-day loss in over two weeks. Today's close at 165.32 marks the lowest recorded closing price since October 24th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FFIV as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $8.11 (4.74%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $4.70. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for FFIV.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
After spiking up to 172.40 during the day, the stock found resistance at the 200-day moving average at 171.36. After having been unable to move lower than 164.82 in the previous session, F5 Networks found buyers again around the same price level today at 164.29. The last time this happened on Monday, FFIV actually lost -3.04% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Trading close to October's low at 161.25 we might see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get triggered.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 200" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for F5 Networks. Out of 9 times, FFIV closed lower 66.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 66.67% with an average market move of -3.22%.