FERG.L climbs to highest close since November 2, 2018
Ferguson plc (FERG.L) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, FERG.L finished the week 3.71% higher at 5310.00 after gaining £35.00 (0.66%) today, strongly outperforming the FTSE 100 (-0.36%). Today's close at 5310.00 marks the highest recorded closing price since November 2, 2018. Trading up to £22.00 lower after the open, the stock managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on December 11, 2018, FERG.L gained 1.83% on the following trading day. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FERG.L as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been £64.00 (1.21%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of £125.33. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently just the same than usual for FERG.L. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 5191.00 and 5336.00 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 5318.00 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 5336.00 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward.
With another close above the upper Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong upward momentum in the short-term. A drop back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back down towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 5025.02.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 5191.00 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "4 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Ferguson plc. Out of 14 times, FERG.L closed lower 85.71% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 50.00% with an average market move of -0.81%.