FDX still stuck within tight trading range
FedEx Corporation (FDX) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
FDX ended the week 8.82% higher at 117.00 after gaining $1.23 (1.06%) today, outperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FDX as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.64 (2.28%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $4.09. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for FDX. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 112.79 and 120.00 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Last Engulfing Top Pattern. The last time a Last Engulfing Top Pattern showed up on February 13th, FDX lost -1.77% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 119.48 (R1). After having been unable to move lower than 115.53 in the prior session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 114.92.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 119.48 where further buy stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to May's high at 124.56, upside momentum might speed up should FedEx mark new highs for the month.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for FedEx. Out of 775 times, FDX closed higher 54.45% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.84% with an average market move of 0.54%.