FDX runs into sellers again around 161.29
FedEx Corporation (FDX) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
FDX ended the week 1.9% higher at 158.62 after losing $2.85 (-1.77%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FDX as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $3.29 (2.05%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.53. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for FDX. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 156.20 and 161.83 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving higher in the previous session, the stock closed lower but above the prior day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on February 6th, FDX actually gained 4.73% on the following trading day.
After trading down to 158.00 earlier during the day, FedEx bounced off the key technical support level at 158.51 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. The share closed back below the 200-day moving average at 158.97. After having been unable to move above 161.83 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 161.29.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 161.83 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 156.48 where further sell stops could get activated. With prices trading close to this year's high at 164.50, upside momentum might speed up should FDX be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 200" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for FedEx. Out of 30 times, FDX closed higher 60.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 73.33% with an average market move of 1.12%.