EXPD closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Expeditors Int'l (EXPD) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EXPD finished the week -7.97% lower at 66.90 after gaining $0.42 (0.63%) today on high volume, underperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Trading $0.54 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, EXPD lost -1.55% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EXPD as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $1.61 (2.39%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.50. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for EXPD.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 66.20 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 66.20 in the previous session, the share found buyers again around the same price level today at 66.36.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day although might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 72.11.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 66.20 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close below the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Expeditors Int'l. Out of 135 times, EXPD closed higher 60.74% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.70% with an average market move of 1.29%.