EXC finds buyers again around 37.51
Exelon Corporation (EXC) Technical Analysis Report for Aug 05, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EXC ended Wednesday at 37.72 tanking $1.03 (-2.66%), significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.64%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over two weeks. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EXC as at Aug 05, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $1.41 (3.64%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.99. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EXC.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Exelon closed back below the 50-day moving average at 38.08. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on Monday, EXC actually gained 2.00% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move lower than 37.34 in the prior session, the share found buyers again around the same price level today at 37.51.
Although the stock is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 37.34 where further sell stops could get triggered. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test July's close-by low at 35.89.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Exelon. Out of 110 times, EXC closed higher 56.36% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.09% with an average market move of 0.38%.