EXC finds buyers at key support level
Exelon Corporation (EXC) Technical Analysis Report for Aug 03, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EXC finished Monday at 37.99 losing $0.62 (-1.61%), notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.72%) ahead of Tuesday's earnings report. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EXC as at Aug 03, 2020):
EXC is set to report earnings before tomorrow's market open. For the upcoming report, analysts expect the company to have earned $0.42 per share. The company's last earnings report was released on May 8, 2020, when Exelon Corporation reported earnings of $0.87 per share topping market expectations by 2.4%.
Monday's trading range has been $0.75 (1.95%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.90. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EXC. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 37.41 and 38.63 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on July 20th, EXC actually gained 1.07% on the following trading day.
After trading down to 37.70 earlier during the day, the stock bounced off the key technical support level at 37.82 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels significance as support going forward. Exelon closed back below the 50-day moving average at 38.04 for the first time since July 27th.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 38.63 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 37.56 where further sell stops might get activated. Further buying could move prices higher should the market test July's close-by high at 39.52.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Exelon. Out of 109 times, EXC closed higher 55.96% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.63% with an average market move of 0.38%.