EXC runs into sellers around 38.63 for the forth day in a row
Exelon Corporation (EXC) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EXC finished the month 6.39% higher at 38.61 after gaining $0.14 (0.36%) today on high volume, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Trading up to $0.35 lower after the open, the share managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing above Thursday's high at 38.49, the stock confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.14 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EXC as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.67 (1.75%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.92. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EXC.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 38.81 (R1). The market was sold again around 38.63 after having seen highs at 38.49, 38.57 and 38.59 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level. The last time this happened on August 26, 2019, EXC actually gained 1.23% on the following trading day.
Exelon shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 37.56 where further sell stops might get activated. As prices are trading close to July's high at 39.52, upside momentum could speed up should EXC mark new highs for the month.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous three Highs" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Exelon. Out of 30 times, EXC closed higher 53.33% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 56.67% with an average market move of 0.01%.