EXC breaks below Thursday's low
Exelon Corporation (EXC) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 24, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, EXC finished the week -4.06% lower at 37.80 after losing $0.84 (-2.17%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.62%). Closing below Thursday's low at 38.42, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.91 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EXC as at Jul 24, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.41 (3.66%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.96. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EXC.
After trading as low as 37.51 during the day, the share found support at the 20-day moving average at 37.54. The last time this happened on April 30th, EXC actually lost -3.45% on the following trading day. Exelon closed back below the 50-day moving average at 37.84 for the first time since July 9th.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Exelon. Out of 108 times, EXC closed higher 56.48% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.19% with an average market move of 0.38%.