EXC breaks back above 20-day moving average
Exelon Corporation (EXC) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EXC ended the week 4.42% higher at 36.85 after gaining $0.41 (1.13%) today on low volume, outperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EXC as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.59 (1.62%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.24. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EXC.
Even with a weak opening the stock managed to close above the previous day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns.
The share managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 36.54. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on Monday, EXC actually lost -2.21% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move lower than 36.39 in the prior session, Exelon found buyers again around the same price level today at 36.29.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 37.47 where further buy stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to May's low at 34.44, downside momentum might speed up should EXC mark new lows for the month.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 20" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Exelon. Out of 168 times, EXC closed lower 53.57% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.17% with an average market move of -0.15%.