ETFC breaks back below 200-day moving average
E*TRADE Financial Corporation (ETFC) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
ETFC finished the week 1.33% higher at 44.19 after losing $0.41 (-0.92%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Trading $0.32 higher after the open, the share was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on February 3rd, ETFC actually gained 2.89% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ETFC as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.90 (2.02%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.04. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for ETFC.
After moving higher in the prior session, the stock closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 43.70 (S1). The market closed back below the 200-day moving average at 44.43. After having been unable to move lower than 43.97 in the prior session, E*TRADE Financial found buyers again around the same price level today at 43.98.
Though ETFC is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 43.97 where further sell stops might get activated. With prices trading close to this year's low at 42.23, downside momentum could speed up should the share break out to new lows for the year.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 200" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for E*TRADE Financial. Out of 30 times, ETFC closed lower 63.33% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.67% with an average market move of -2.19%.