EL climbs to highest close since January 21st
Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, EL finished the week 2.9% higher at 215.01 after gaining $0.12 (0.06%) today, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Today's close at 215.01 marks the highest recorded closing price since January 21st. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EL as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.79 (0.83%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $4.23. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for EL. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 211.16 and 216.18 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 213.45 (S1). After having been unable to move above 216.18 in the prior session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 215.61. The last time this happened on February 3rd, EL actually gained 2.15% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 216.18 where further buy stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 220.42, upside momentum could speed up should the market be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Estee Lauder. Out of 590 times, EL closed higher 53.56% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.22% with an average market move of 0.98%.