DRE breaks below 50-day moving average for the first time since January 10th
Duke Realty Corporation (DRE) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, DRE finished Tuesday at 29.90 tanking $0.71 (-2.32%), strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.05%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over three months. Today's close at 29.90 marks the lowest recorded closing price since March 8th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 30.50, the share confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.80 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (DRE as at Apr 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.01 (3.3%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.46. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for DRE.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Duke Realty closed below the 50-day moving average at 30.25 for the first time since January 10th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on December 17, 2018, DRE actually gained 1.49% on the following trading day.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since March 1st, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices could head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 30.66 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
While the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Further selling could move prices lower should the market test March's nearby low at 29.12.
Among the 13 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed below the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Duke Realty. Out of 65 times, DRE closed higher 55.38% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.00% with an average market move of 0.88%.