DE breaks back below 50-day moving average
Deere & Company (DE) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, DE ended the week 0.37% higher at 168.07 after losing $2.69 (-1.58%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing below Thursday's low at 169.86, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $2.68 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (DE as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $5.13 (3.0%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $3.23. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for DE.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on February 3rd, DE actually gained 3.88% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 167.18 during the day, the share found support at the 20-day moving average at 167.24. The stock closed back below the 50-day moving average at 170.69. After having been unable to move above 171.91 in the prior session, Deere & ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 172.31.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 166.13 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Outside Bar" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Deere &. Out of 118 times, DE closed higher 52.54% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.71% with an average market move of 1.08%.