CVX still stuck within tight trading range
Chevron Corporation (CVX) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, CVX ended the month -2.69% lower at 89.23 after gaining $1.56 (1.78%) today, outperforming the Dow Indu. (0.85%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Monday's high at 88.57, Chevron confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $1.42 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CVX as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $3.63 (4.19%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $3.03. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CVX. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 86.18 and 90.13 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Regardless of a weak opening the stock managed to close above the previous day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle. The last time a White Candle showed up on June 25th, CVX actually lost -3.08% on the following trading day.
The market managed to close back above the 100-day moving average at 89.17 for the first time since June 23rd. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 89.91 (R1), the share closed below it after spiking up to 89.99 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels significance going forward. CVX found buyers again today around 86.36 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 86.60 in the prior session and at 86.18 two days ago.
Chevron shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 86.18 where further sell stops might get activated. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test May's nearby low at 86.02.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to previous two Lows" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Chevron. Out of 108 times, CVX closed higher 59.26% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.85% with an average market move of 0.49%.