CVX breaks back below 20-day moving average
Chevron Corporation (CVX) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, CVX finished the week 1.05% higher at 110.08 after losing $1.58 (-1.42%) today, strongly underperforming the Dow Indu. (-0.09%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CVX as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.39 (1.25%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.63. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CVX.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading down to 109.58 earlier during the day, the share bounced off the key technical support level at 109.98 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels significance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on January 24th, CVX actually lost -1.31% on the following trading day. The stock closed back below the 20-day moving average at 110.69.
Although Chevron is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 20" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Chevron. Out of 146 times, CVX closed higher 55.48% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.16% with an average market move of 0.82%.