CTXS stuck within tight trading range
Citrix Systems Inc. (CTXS) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CTXS ended the week 0.78% higher at 122.03 after losing $0.97 (-0.79%) today, strongly underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (0.29%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Trading $0.57 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CTXS as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.70 (1.38%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.18. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for CTXS. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 121.34 and 123.45 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
After moving higher in the prior session, Citrix Systems closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on November 14, 2019, CTXS actually gained 1.08% on the following trading day.
The share closed back below the 20-day moving average at 122.65. After having been unable to move lower than 121.59 in the prior session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 121.75.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 121.34 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Citrix Systems. Out of 475 times, CTXS closed higher 55.16% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.00% with an average market move of 0.82%.