CTXS closes within prior day's range
Citrix Systems Inc. (CTXS) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CTXS finished the week -4.97% lower at 102.53 after gaining $0.42 (0.41%) today, notably underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (2.77%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CTXS as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $3.70 (3.55%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.76. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for CTXS.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 103.72 (R1). After having been unable to move above 104.99 in the prior session, Citrix Systems ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 104.76. The last time this happened on Tuesday, CTXS lost -2.03% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day although could signal a potential change in momentum that might lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 108.90.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close below the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Citrix Systems. Out of 119 times, CTXS closed higher 53.78% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.87% with an average market move of 2.09%.